Transcript: GMA's Howie Severino Interviews Prof Clarita Carlos of UP Diliman about Duterte

This is a transcript of the video published on September 12, 2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biBfi9tc00c

Howie Severino (HS): Sinadya ni Pangulong Duterte na hindi dumalo sa ASEAN-US meeting, taliwas sa sinabi ng kanyang kampo na hindi maganda ang kanyang pakiramdam noon. Ano po kaya ang implikasyon nito?

Clarita Carlos (CC): Wala naman siguro. Let’s not second-guess the President. Motivation is one of the most challenging areas for study. We don’t know, then let it be. Kung ano man yung rason nya ay tanggapin natin. How it will affect relations I don’t think it will affect our relations na nakabaon sa napakaraming legal instruments: mutual defense treaty, visiting forces agreement, edca, etc.

HS: Kaso may sinasabi sya ngayon na dapat mag-pull out daw yung US troops – he’s shown quite a bit of anti-American sentiment lately. Pero sabi nyo nga, nakabaon sya sa mga agreement. Ano ba talaga yung wiggle room or space ng ating pangulo para baguhin ang ating foreign policy kaugnay ng America?

CC: The president, as the Chief Executive, is the chief articulator of our foreign policy. But he’s not the only one. I’m sure you know you have legislation, you have the legislature and you have the courts. Yung VFA ni-ratify yan kahit hindi yan tratado. Ang EDCA iI’ sure you have heard na kaka-declare lang ng Supreme Court na constitutional siya. All these are legal instruments which any declaration cannot immediately (what’s the term) delete, or make inoperational. Yung kanyang order na ang mga American so-called advisers leave Mindanao, this is not to complicate operations happening there. Cause I can just imagine if meron silang mamamatay na kasamahan nila, may casualties – and that’s an open secret. Everybody knows that they have been there. They have been embedded in our AFP. Andaming AFP na nagsasabi sa atin nyan. Let us remember that ang mga Amerikano o mga Australiano for that matter with whom we have Status of Forces Agreement cannot come here without our permission. Repeat: without or permission.  Whatever is happening in our country, whether it was the previous administration or the present one, it is with our permission. So, siguro kung yung sinasabi ni Presidente kamakailan, for them to get out is really to make the operations there less complicated. Even when they become part of the casualty. 

HS: But Maam he’s not saying make it less complicated, gusto nyang ipa-pull out. What would it take for the US troops to be pulled out?

CC: Here I’m interpreting him. Because I know on the ground certain things which are not made public for security reasons, okay? Pag sinabi nyang i-pull out, yung mga advisers, alam ng afp natin na nandiyan sila. And following constitutional strictures, nandiyan sila on a rotational basis. Which means theoretically, they are not here on a continuing basis. That said, pag ini-square mo sya dun sa kaka-declare na [State of] Lawless Violence, then you are saying that – pinagsanib nga nya ang pwersa ng PNPat AFP para tumugis dito sa dissident groups, ang nakikita nya siguro – ito ang interpretation ko is makaka-complicate yun if there are foreign elements, whoever they are, whichever country they come from.  And im sure he has been informed by his defense people, security people that they are there.  Alam na natin. Alam nga natin na meron silang almost permanent base dyan somewhere in Mindanao. Let us not close our eyes to the fact that we allowed them to be here, diba? Even while we had abrogated the military bases agreement we, in 1999 agreed to the visiting forces agreement. And the same with Australians. Ang mga Amerkano po at Australiano hindi po yan makakagalaw sa bansa natin kung hindi po natin pinapayagan. As a matter of fact on a personal note, my research team helped the Visiting Forces Commission with the IRR [Implementing Rules and Regulations].  Isipin ninyo 1999 pa yang Visiting Forces Agreement ngayon pa dadating yung IRR.  And to be fair to the Americans, susunod lang sila sa patakaran natin. Pag sinabi natin na “lahat ng laman ng kargo ng barko nyo ha, dapat bago kayo dumating dito, makita muna namin”, sumusunod sila. When I interviewed them, they simply told me “Dr Carlos you know, whatever you tell us to do, kasi bansa nyo yan, susundin lang namin.  Huwag lang yung nandito na kami saka nyo sasabihin na, oy, baka yang surgeon ninyo, baka naman nagtitinda ng taho lang yan…?” Of course Im exaggerating to make a point. The point is bago dumating yung kanilang medical team, ayusin muna yung accreditation, hindi ba? And huwag natin kalimutan ho na allies ho natin ito. We’re training with them, because in the future, we will fight with them. Hindi naman natin enemies ‘to, allies po natin ito.

HS: Yes Maam. Yun nga, sinasabi nyo nga – pinapayagan natin, kung ayaw na natin kailangan na nating sabihin sa kanila. At the same time Maam, sinabi nyo na si Pangulong Duterte ay sya yung chief articulator ng foreign policy. It was quite clear na sinasabi nya po ay pull out. Pero ang interpretation nyo po ngayon ay sinasabi he doesn’t really mean kick out the US troops from Mindanao.

CC: No no. He knows certain things on the ground kaya nakukuha ko yung pinanggagalingan nya. I hope I’m right, no? I’m not second guessing him. I know where he’s coming from. By the way ha, I’m not apologizing for him. I don’t know him, he doesn’t know me. I’m just an observer of politics. You ask me, I’m giving you my view.

HS: Yes of course. Unfortunately most people Maam don’t have the kind of inside information that you have so you’re able to interpret him in this way but, most people listening to him, in the public, when he says kailangan nang mag pull out o kailangan nang umalis ang mga US troops sa Mindanao, well they are taking that at face value without trying to interpret it any other way kasi medyo delikado rin yun if we try to interpret it the way you’re trying to interpret it.

CC: Yeah, why are we asking this President to be circumspect about his articulation? And tayo hindi tayo nag-aaral. Please magkalkal ho kayo ng kasaysayan. Magbasa po kayo. Yung IRR po na tinapos ng Visiting Forces Commission ay public document po yan. Basahin nyo po. Believe me. Kahit yung mga pinakamaliit-liit na bagay no, yung dadalhin nila na medicine dito for example: hindi na sila pinapayagan – yung mga Australiano at mga Amerikano – ngayon kailangang bumili sila sa ating mga drugstores. Hanggang dyan sa kaliit-liit na detalye na yan nandun sa IRR. So medyo magkalkal lang po tayo ng kasaysayan and let’s not shoot off our mouths na wala tayo pong alam. Talagang magkakamali tayo sa conclusion natin.

HS: We’re not really shooting our mouths Maam. We’re just listening to the President on this. But Maam yung sinasabi nya, does it signify a major foreign policy shift on the part of the Philippines. Dahil he seems to be trying mark out a more independent policy – is that your interpretation or – ang sinasabi nyo rin we’re locked in to the agreements from the past so there’s not really much we can do in terms of our foreign policy.

CC: 8:00 Well independence is not [inaudible]. Independence is not what Burma did and we’re not going there.  Independent means we are going to identify which are good for us, and then we’ll see. If it means you know, getting closer to Russia, let it be.  Which means you know, telling off China, let it be. That is what independent means. Meaning, giving us the final determination of what is good for us. Remember by rotation tayo ang magiging chairman next year di baga? Then let us push the ASEAN regional integration because this is the one that will really lift or the likelihood for 27M of our poor people to have a higher level of life, you know, not to be poor. Dapat ganun natin itinda yung ASEAN economic community and all the other aspect of ASEAN 2020. Let’s not lose fight of that opportunity. Ni wala nga ngayong leader ang ASEAN. Aba, malay mo si Duterte ang maging leader nyan. You remember nung time ni Marcos hindi nga makasingit yan si Lee Kwan Yew because we were the leader at that time. Ngayon wala na namang leader. I mean o, i-enumerate nyo yang lahat ng sampung yan. O di sya? After all he believes in himself and he is his own person.

HS: Ok Maam just to clarify just this one last point about the statement of President Duterte – kahit sinasabi nyang ayaw na nya sa US troops kailangan nang umalis for whatever reason sinasabi nya, where there’s also principle, there’s some practical reasons. Sinasabi nyo na kahit sinasabi ng Pangulong Duterte he cannot just tell the US troops to leave, especially for people living in Mindanao listening: you’re saying na the US troops will not be leaving Mindanao anytime soon?

CC: Well, let me put it this way: kasi hindi ko alam ang tactical and operational aspect nyan. I’m sure – sino bang head ng DND ngayon, I forgot his name no. I’m sure binibigyan nya ng giya ang president. Ang sinasabi nya “Mr President alam mo, merong maraming naka embed na mga Amerkano dyan who are training with our troops. Tinitingnan ko lang kung anong pinanggalingan ng estorya ha, pinanggalingan ng kanyang declaration na yan. And I think that’s part of tactical and operational na mag pull out muna sila, dahil baka masali sila sa ano sa casualty. Yun ang nakita kong implikasyon. But you know, for us to, mag-atras tayo sa Mutual Defense Treaty -- treaty yun. Visiting Forces Agreement? Niratify yun ng senate. EDCA? I mean, I already noted what these legal instruments are. And you know, just a simple declaration will not in fact render them inutile.

HS: Ok. You did say that the President is the chief articulator of our foreign policy but you’re also saying that what he’s saying may not even be possible because of our agreements with the United States.

CC: Yes! But that’s because there are limits to what you can declare. Suppose Teresa May the new Prime Minister of Britain tells us that you know, Brexit this is not going to happen. So we say, no, it’s going to happen because that’s the result of a referendum. In other words she is the prime minister, she articulates British foreign policy but there has been no referendum and a decision has been made. This is what I mean. There are parameters to what he can and what he cannot do. But he can articulate anything of course at a later time maybe, under advisement of certain people the DFA or wherever, then he would say na, “Hey ok, these are the things I can do and I cannot do.” Our president is an intelligent person and I think he knows where he’s going.

HS: Ok Professor speaking of which, what the president can and cannot do. Punta naman po tayo dun sa issue ni Mary Jane Veloso na nasa death row sa Indonesia. Ano po baa ng pwede at hindi pwedeng gawin ni Pangulong Duterte kaugnay sa kaso ni Mary Jane?

CC: Remember The President just declared na ayaw nya na nangingialam yung ibang bansa. Di ba kaya nga nagkaroon ng napakalaking brouhaha dyan sa sagot nya dun sa human rights na nasabit si Barack Obama ay dahil nga dyan. So palagay mo ba makikisawsaw sya dun sa desisyon dito sa isang – si Veloso? Binabasa ko kasi yung sinabi daw nya. Sabi nya “follow your laws”. I’m sure he cannot say otherwise. I cannot say otherwise. Magagalit si Jokowi sa kanya pag nagsabi sya. Dahil nagdaan na yan sa napakalawak at malalim na ano court procedure sa Jakarta, sa Indonesia.

HS: Indonesian Pres Widodo though has been quoted in the media as saying that Duterte gave a go signal or green light for the execution. Pero kina-clarify ngayon ng DFA at Malacanang na iba yung dapat na translation.

CC: Well I guess if you translate “follow your laws” and then you push it, you extrapolate – it will lead to that?  I don’t know. Did The President declare that? Let Malacanang give the explanation. As far as I can see as far as I can read, pag sinabi nyang “follow your laws” he was just being consistent. Now wag kang mangialam dahil pinakialaman na ng kanilang justice system yan and meron nang conviction like that, for sure mapapahiya sya pag sa harap ni Jokowi sinabihan nya na, “pwede mo bang baguhin to?” we don’t know what backchannelling looks like at all if there was back channeling. (End of interview)

* * * * *